Tesla Model Y - Prices Going Up!! Buy Now or Wait It Out?!?! What To Do As Incentives Dry Up...

Tesla Model Y, Model 3 and Cybertruck buyers have a lot to consider right now. As we round out the last couple weeks of August, we are steaming ahead towards the end of the $7,500 tax credit, and with it, likely effective prices we have right now.

In 2025, we have seen the launch of the new refresh Model Y Juniper, the continuation of the refresh model 3, and the tax credit eligibility at point of sale start for the Cybertruck. All 3 of these vehicles benefit form qualifying for the $7,500 incentive, which is able to be taken at time of sale. This effectively takes $7,500 off the price of the car when you go to buy it, and with lease incentives, lowers the monthly payment on those too.

But the Big Beautiful Bill was passed, and with it, the end of ev tax credits, which have been around for over 15 years now. The amended EV tax credit went into effect in 2022, and became point of sale eligible starting in 2023. Since then, we have seen Tesla, as well as others, pivot manufacturing to be compliant with the North American standards to qualify of the $7,500 incentive.

With this tax credit going away, rather than phasing out, there is an awkward and abrupt hiccup on the horizon. This will overnight make eligible cars $7,500 more expensive on October 1st. But of course Tesla can make adjustments to prices with less impact to profitability than the other players in this space, but how much can they take out?

In the past we have seen Tesla take out $7,500 in price, and although I don't think there is that much margin on the table with todays offerings, it is quite possible that Tesla is able to do this once again, which would maintain the effective price most consumers have been benefiting from for the last couple years.

Assuming Tesla is able to lower the price of the Model Y, Model 3 and Cybertruck by $7,500, it brings about other challenges that make these cars effectively more expensive, and that is the inability to follow that price reduction up with incentivized interest rates. For some time now, Tesla has been incentivizing interest rates and leases to bring monthly payments down as a tool to drive demand. It has been effective, and there's no reason it wouldn't be effective in the future.

The problem is if Tesla takes out significant price in the Model Y, Model 3 and Cybertruck, what would be left that could be applied to interest rates? It's not likely they can buy down rates like they have been doing AND lower the price $7,500.

If that turns out to be the case, this may be the last chance to get a Model Y, Model 3 or Cybertruck for a great price. It could be quite a while before we see affordability back to these levels. In fact, Tesla has already started removing incentives and backing off on programs which has increased costs to consumers as we draw closer to September.

So short of having a crystal ball, I think it's wise to seriously consider pulling the trigger before September 30th to ensure you get the best pricing we have for now. There's of course a chance we see Tesla do the impossible, but there's no way to know for sure. Until interest rates come down naturally, I think affordability is going to continue to be a challenge, not just for Tesla, but for the entire automotive industry.


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